Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois 1/8/2012

[RXNewsbot]

AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Arkansas State winning 47% of simulations, and Northern Illinois 53% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Arkansas State commits fewer turnovers in 33% of simulations and they go on to win 62% when they take care of the ball. Northern Illinois wins 63% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Ryan Aplin is averaging 262 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 67%. Chandler Harnish is averaging 74 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (30% chance) then he helps his team win 64%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NOILL +1.5 --- Over/Under line is 63

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